By 2050 at the current rate of immigration both legal and illegal, there will be 68 million more potential voters alive that will likely vote democrat than those likely to vote Republican.
Unfortunately, this isn’t speculative, it’s mathematically accurate with a margin of error of only a few million.
What We Know
We know that in the 2016 presidential election approximately 40% of Americans voted, but even at a voter turnout level as low as 35% in 2050, the American conservative republic is likely doomed without radical reform.
Based on modern turnout rates, the actual number of likely voters alive that the democrats will have above Republicans in 2050 is approximately 27,200,000 and around 37,400,000 at voting age. Make no mistake though, even at the lowest probability of turnout, these numbers are still unrecoverable for future Conservatives.
For simplicity, however, I’ve kept this formula in a format where I have calculated all potential voters alive rather than the 55% that are of voting age in the United States and the 40% that actually voted. This means that the concluding numbers include all people, young and old, who are living in the year 2050 that will likely vote democrat based on decades of data.
Frankly, the left is just outproducing the right in voters at a staggering ratio, and this is likely inevitable without extreme intervention. White American voters are at a below replacement rate of birth, and the demographics that are replacing them vote for the democrat almost always. They have for decades, and likely always will.
The above graph from the BBC shows how the vote broke down by race in the 2016 election. There is another version they released that shows the Hispanic rate at 65% for the democrat but with the way the math works, it still wouldn’t matter even if it was 50/50.
These numbers are based on the current birth rates, immigration trends, and voting trends continuing through the year 2050
What It’s Like Now
2016
Total population in America in 2016 – 325,000,000
Hispanic Non-white population in 2016 – 18% which equals 58,500,000
Non-Hispanic white population in 2016 – 62.8% to 67% which equals between 204,100,000 to 217,750,000 – (The larger estimation will be used here)
Black population in 2016 – 13% which equals 42,250,000
Asian population in 2016 – 5% which equals 16,250,000
‘Others’ (not included)
2016 ELECTION
Hispanic Non-white – 70% (approx.) for the democrat 29% for republican
Black – 88% for the democrat 8% for republican
Non-Hispanic white – 37% for the democrat 58% for the republican
Asians – 65% for the democrat 29% for republican
PEOPLE ALIVE TODAY OF ANY AGE WHO WOULD LIKELY VOTE DEMOCRAT:
Hispanic Non-white potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote democrat: – 40,950,000
Black potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote democrat: – 37,180,000
Non-Hispanic white potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote democrat: – 80,567,500
Asian potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote democrat: – 10,562,500
TOTAL potential voters alive in 2018 who would likely vote democrat = 169,260,000 (40% who actually voted, not including for independents)
PEOPLE ALIVE TODAY OF ANY AGE WHO WOULD LIKELY VOTE REPUBLICAN:
Hispanic Non-white potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote republican – 16,965,000
Black potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote republican – 3,380,000
Non-Hispanic white voters alive in 2018 who would vote republican – 126,295,000
Asian potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote republican – 4,712,500
TOTAL potential voters alive in 2018 who would vote republican= 151,352,500 (40% who actually voted, not including for independents)
MARGIN OF ADVANTAGE: (Plus 18 million for democrats)
7,000,000 who are of voting age and likely to vote or have voted
What It Will Be Like
2050
The total population in America by 2050 – 398,000,000 (rounded up 400 million for simplicity)
Hispanic Non-white population by 2050 – 29% which equals 116 million
Non-Hispanic white population by 2050 – 40% which equals 160 million
Black population by 2050 – 13% which equals 52 million
Asian population in 2018 – 9% which equals 36 million
2050 ELECTION
Hispanic Non-white – 70% (approx.) for the democrat 29% for republican
Black – 88% for the democrat 8% for republican
Non-Hispanic white – 37% for the democrat 58% for the republican
Asians – 65% for the democrat 29% for republican
PEOPLE ALIVE IN 2050 OF ANY AGE WHO WOULD LIKELY VOTE DEMOCRAT:
Hispanic Non-white potential voters alive who would likely vote democrat in 2050: 81,200,000
Black potential voters alive who would likely vote democrat in 2050: 45,760,000
Non-Hispanic white potential voters alive who would likely vote democrat in 2050: 59,200,000
Asian potential voters alive who would likely vote democrat in 2050: 23,400,000
TOTAL potential voters alive in 2050 who would likely vote democrat = 209,560,000 (40% who actually voted, not including for independents)
PEOPLE ALIVE IN 2050 OF ANY AGE WHO WOULD LIKELY VOTE REPUBLICAN:
Hispanic Non-white potential voters alive who would vote republican in 2050: 33,640,000
Black potential voters alive who would vote republican in 2050: 4,160,000
Non-Hispanic white potential voters alive who would vote republican in 2050: 92,800,000
Asian potential voters alive who would vote republican in 2050: 10,440,000
TOTAL potential voters alive in 2050 who would vote republican= 141,040,000
(40% who actually voted, not including for independents)
MARGIN OF ADVANTAGE: (Plus 68 million for democrats)
50 million new voters produced for the democrats – 20 million who will be of voting age and likely actually vote
What it Was Like Before
These numbers, even at a margin of error of 5 million still wouldn’t matter. In 1968 however, the outlook was much more positive. Republicans had a 20 million margin of advantage back then before the 1965 Hart-Celler immigration act which changed the face of this country effectively. Of those 20 million approximately, 40% actually were old enough to vote at the time which left the advantage of total voters alive who would likely vote republican at 8 million.
It’s the white American voter in the 2050 numbers that is lacking from the equation compared to 2016 and 1968. This is certainly because the 1965 Hart – Celler immigration act changed our immigration mainly from Europe to mostly Mexico.
Conservatives need a plan. And fast.
